On Thursday 12 December, we hosted the webinar “Trump and Tariffs: A Global Perspective of What Lies Ahead”. The session focused on the potential tariff impacts of President-Elect Trump’s second term in office, giving a global perspective on what to expect from the new U.S. administration in terms of the much-touted additional tariffs on imports into the U.S., and how best to prepare for their direct and indirect consequences.
Speakers from across the globe discussed the potential impact of the likely additional U.S. tariffs in their respective jurisdictions, the key takeaways of which can be found here.
Highlights from our EU / UK speakers Dr. Bregt Natens (Belgium) and Jessica Mutton (UK) are set out below, and can be heard here. To listen to the full webinar, please click here.
Highlights from the EU / UK
- The EU and UK will be hesitant to introduce broad retaliatory tariffs to avoid damaging the broader economy. Instead, we expect a more targeted response on specific U.S.-origin goods in the form of retaliatory tariffs is expected.
- As the incoming U.S. administration has signalled that the likely additional U.S. tariffs are, at least in part, a negotiating tactic, the EU and UK are expected to attempt to negotiate with the U.S. to obtain exemptions from the tariffs or quotas. This could be, for instance, in exchange for additional purchases of U.S. goods to help rebalance the U.S. trade deficit.
- The EU and UK authorities are further expected to take an aggressive approach in rejecting avoidance of any retaliatory tariffs, e.g., through relocation of production from the U.S. to a third country – for more on this, see our blog post on the recent ECJ case on anti-circumvention of tariffs
Mitigation measures
Key takeaways for businesses include reviewing their global supply chains, with a particular emphasis on jurisdictions that will likely face the highest U.S. additional tariffs, such as China and the U.S.’s USMCA counterparts Canada and Mexico. Whilst President Trump’s second term will likely be unpredictable as concerns the use of tariffs, businesses can consider putting in place mitigation strategies, such as reshuffling supply patterns, relocating production (subject to anti-circumvention rules), or revising contractual clauses and exclusions. For further information, and keep up to date on all developments, please see the Import and Trade Remedies blog.
